Helmut Norpoth

Biography

Helmut Norpoth is co-author of The American Voter Revisited, covering the images of presidential candidates, party identification, and why Americans turn out to vote. He has also written a book about public reactions to British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, especially her economic and foreign policies. Norpoth has designed models to forecast elections in the U.S., Britain, and Germany. His Primary Model correctly predicted Obama's re-election as early as February of 2012 and correctly predicted that Donald Trump would be the next President of the United States in 2016. He received his PhD and MA from the University of Michigan.

Research

Helmut Norpoth’s research interest focuses on electoral behavior, public opinion, wartime elections; economic voting, electoral realignment (particularly new deal) and electoral forecasting

Publications - Articles

"Fighting to Win: Wartime Morale in the American Public" with Andrew H Sidman (2012)

"Yes, Prime Minister: The Key to Forecasting British Elections" with Matthew Lebo (2011)

"The New Deal Realignment in Real Time" with Andrew H. Sidman and Clara Suong

"History and Primary: The Obama Re-Election" with Michael Bednarczuk

"Guns 'N Jobs: The FDR Legacy" with Alexa Bankert

Publications - Books

“The American Voter Revisited” with Michael Lewis-Beck, Willian Jacoby and Herbert Weisberg (2009).

Models and Forecasting

• 2012 Forecast
• The Primary Model

News

• Political science professor predicts Trump win
• In Trump vs. Biden, 2 forecasts see different outcomes
• Professor Helmut Norpoth gives his insight to FOX News on who he predicts will win the 2020 Presidential Election.
• Maverick Modeller Helmut Norpoth Predicts Another Win for Trump
• Election Projections with Professor Helmut Norpoth, PhD
• No Country for Neophytes: Angela Merkel will win Germany again
• What the Press Still Doesn't Get About Trump